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The Morning Report
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Summary: Anticipating
2030..then...
Good Morning Traders!
The NASDAQ is beginning the day with a bias to increase
and we are expecting the market to test 2030 early in
the session. From there the market is likely to
turn lower again as suggested.
Initial intraday trading parameters for the NASDAQ
exist between 2015 - 2030
- If 2015 breaks lower expect 2000
- If 2030 breaks higher expect 2060
- Otherwise expect 2015 - 2030 to hold
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IT Spending:
Goldman Sachs' newest IT Spending Survey report
shows another disappointing reading on 2005 tech
spending, which foots with the uninspiring spending
the firm is seeing in the marketplace. The firm
says that tech looks to be firmly in the cyclical
category for now, and expects 2005 IT spending
to be modestly better than last year, but still
not reflective of a fully healthy tech spending
environment.
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DNA:
Two tier-1 firms issuing comments on Genentech
this morning with Goldman out noting Phase III
data on a competing agent for Avastin, PTK 787,
may be released by mid May. DNA shares could
trade between low to high $50s depending on the
outcome. In 2005, Phase III data are expected
from 4 new indications with combined potential
of $4B. DNA shares could trade to mid $60s if
these data are positive... .Piper saying they
attended a cancer meeting where they had an opportunity
to speak to cancer experts on Avastin for lung
cancer. Both of the speakers believed that the
survival benefit of Avastin was clinically meaningful,
but acknowledged that the clinical significance
of a two-month median survival benefit may be
called into question by the broader physician
community. The firm maintains its outperform rating
on the stock.
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VIA:
The WSJ discusses Viacom's plan to split into
2 entities, which sounds like a good idea. Investors
have applauded and the move has been praised as
a neat solution to a succession battle. But
making it work may not be that easy, especially
since such split-ups are rarely attempted.
And however nifty the structure of the deal appears,
the idea was put together so quickly that some
details remain unclear. These include such fundamental
matters as who will be CEO of the 2 new co's and
the role of Viacom Chairman and CEO Sumner Redstone.
But yesterday Mr. Redstone said he would be CEO
of each of the new co's. Messrs. Freston and Moonves
would oversee operations at the new co's, essentially
the same role they have now. Having Mr. Redstone
as CEO of the 2 co's could create complications
for both entities, which will be competing for
viewers and advertisers. "It's like Siamese
twins that are not fond of each other," warns
Dee Soder, managing partner of CEO Perspective
Group. The proposed set-up "is fraught with
problems," she continues. "It could
turn out to be the ultimate family feud."
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INTC:
Deutsche Bank upgrades INTC to Buy from Hold
and maintains their $27 tgt, citing high investor
skepticism, valuation near an 8-year low, and
near-term earnings risk now understood by the
mkt. Also, while compelling stock drivers (Longhorn,
Media Center, WiMAX) may not emerge until CY06,
firm says they provide incremental upside potential.
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MSFT:
Microsoft Corp.'s latest offer to comply with
sanctions imposed by the European Commission is
insufficient to meet the concerns of customers
and consumers, a Commission spokesman said on
Friday. "On the basis of market test results,
we have serious doubts that Microsoft is complying
with the interoperability remedy," EU competition
spokesman Jonathan Todd said.
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FNM:
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae, previously accused
by regulators of manipulating earnings, disclosed
Thursday that it will miss the regulatory deadline
for filing its financial report for 2004 and
may have to record an additional loss of some
$2.4 billion. The discovery of falsified signatures
raised the possibility of criminal activity by
company employees. In a filing with the
SEC Thursday, the government-sponsored company
said it would not be able to meet a March 31 deadline
to file the annual report and was unable to
provide "a reasonable estimate" of its
earnings for 2003 and 2004.
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February Import Prices +0.8%;
up 0.2% ex-oil |
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