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The Nightly Newsletter

 

 The Morning Report
   

Summary: Anticipating 2030..then...

Good Morning Traders!

The NASDAQ is beginning the day with a bias to increase and we are expecting the market to test 2030 early in the session.  From there the market is likely to turn lower again as suggested.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the NASDAQ exist between 2015 - 2030

  • If 2015 breaks lower expect 2000
  • If 2030 breaks higher expect 2060
  • Otherwise expect 2015 - 2030 to hold
 
IT Spending:

Goldman Sachs' newest IT Spending Survey report shows another disappointing reading on 2005 tech spending, which foots with the uninspiring spending the firm is seeing in the marketplace. The firm says that tech looks to be firmly in the cyclical category for now, and expects 2005 IT spending to be modestly better than last year, but still not reflective of a fully healthy tech spending environment.

 

DNA:

Two tier-1 firms issuing comments on Genentech this morning with Goldman out noting Phase III data on a competing agent for Avastin, PTK 787, may be released by mid May. DNA shares could trade between low to high $50s depending on the outcome. In 2005, Phase III data are expected from 4 new indications with combined potential of $4B. DNA shares could trade to mid $60s if these data are positive... .Piper saying they attended a cancer meeting where they had an opportunity to speak to cancer experts on Avastin for lung cancer. Both of the speakers believed that the survival benefit of Avastin was clinically meaningful, but acknowledged that the clinical significance of a two-month median survival benefit may be called into question by the broader physician community. The firm maintains its outperform rating on the stock.

 

VIA:

The WSJ discusses Viacom's plan to split into 2 entities, which sounds like a good idea. Investors have applauded and the move has been praised as a neat solution to a succession battle. But making it work may not be that easy, especially since such split-ups are rarely attempted. And however nifty the structure of the deal appears, the idea was put together so quickly that some details remain unclear. These include such fundamental matters as who will be CEO of the 2 new co's and the role of Viacom Chairman and CEO Sumner Redstone. But yesterday Mr. Redstone said he would be CEO of each of the new co's. Messrs. Freston and Moonves would oversee operations at the new co's, essentially the same role they have now. Having Mr. Redstone as CEO of the 2 co's could create complications for both entities, which will be competing for viewers and advertisers. "It's like Siamese twins that are not fond of each other," warns Dee Soder, managing partner of CEO Perspective Group. The proposed set-up "is fraught with problems," she continues. "It could turn out to be the ultimate family feud."

 

INTC:

Deutsche Bank upgrades INTC to Buy from Hold and maintains their $27 tgt, citing high investor skepticism, valuation near an 8-year low, and near-term earnings risk now understood by the mkt. Also, while compelling stock drivers (Longhorn, Media Center, WiMAX) may not emerge until CY06, firm says they provide incremental upside potential.

 

MSFT:

Microsoft Corp.'s latest offer to comply with sanctions imposed by the European Commission is insufficient to meet the concerns of customers and consumers, a Commission spokesman said on Friday. "On the basis of market test results, we have serious doubts that Microsoft is complying with the interoperability remedy," EU competition spokesman Jonathan Todd said.

 

FNM:

Mortgage giant Fannie Mae, previously accused by regulators of manipulating earnings, disclosed Thursday that it will miss the regulatory deadline for filing its financial report for 2004 and may have to record an additional loss of some $2.4 billion. The discovery of falsified signatures raised the possibility of criminal activity by company employees.  In a filing with the SEC Thursday, the government-sponsored company said it would not be able to meet a March 31 deadline to file the annual report and was unable to provide "a reasonable estimate" of its earnings for 2003 and 2004.

 

February Import Prices +0.8%; up 0.2% ex-oil
 
 
 
 
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