Summary: Mid term
resistance levels are near..
The NASDAQ is testing a mid
term/mid channel resistance level.
Technical Analysis
Accuracy Rating for the last
trading session: 1
(The parameters told us where to expect support and resistance levels on
Monday.)
These charts tell us that the NASDAQ is near a
mid term/mid channel resistance level at 1740 while the DOW and SP seem
to be near converging near term trend support levels. Overall,
these charts tell us that there is downside risk if the DOW and SP
support levels break. These would be our down side signals.
We should recognize that overall these Markets
are near mid channel levels of resistance as well, and by rule, when
resistance levels are tested we should first expect declines, and only
if they are broken should we expect increases. We could watch the
NASDAQ as an up-indicator on Tuesday if 1740 breaks higher and we should
expect mid term resistance levels to be tested if that mid channel
resistance level is broken.
Market
Commentary
The DOW and SP appear to be in
parity.
Traders
Psychology
- Traders want strong
economic data.
- Traders are interested in
vacationing if no positive indicators surface.
- Traders want to be
bullish.
Trading
Approach
The Market should start the day
reacting to early morning news including but not limited to the Consumer
Confidence Report which will be released 1/2 hour after the open.
Initial trading parameters for the NASDAQ exist between
1700-1740
If 1700 breaks lower expect 1685
If 1740 breaks higher expect 1775
Otherwise expect 1700-1740 to hold.
We are aware that the Market is
nearing mid channel levels of resistance and we understand that
downturns in the market may occur unless these channel resistance levels
are broken. We are expecting more upside before such a test occurs
officially though.
Trading
Ideas
Watch for
ideas in the Morning Report.
Use the ideas
listed above to day trade. Swing Trading ideas are offered over
e-mail and on the Trades Page. Watch for adjustments in the
Morning Report as well. Read the Traders Guide Completely and
understand it before attempting to follow any trades.
After-Market News
| 1. |
NVDA: Co. expects to report total revenues of $455-460 mln for Q2,
"within the guidance provided by the Company on its last quarterly
conference call", R.R. consensus $460 mln.. Gross margins are
expected to be slightly lower than the Co's original guidance as a
result of higher than anticipated product costs. |
| 2. |
FON: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.35 per share, $0.03
better than the Reuters
Research consensus of $0.32; revenues fell 8% year/year to $3.53 bln
vs the $3.55 bln consensus. Company sees Y03 EPS of $1.35-1.40 vs
consensus of $1.32. |
| Market Reaction: |
News was light after hours and it is not likely to impact trading on
Tuesday. |
| |
NASDAQ
Futures: NQ03U
Futures were
-2 at the time of
this newsletter and this suggests a lower open on Tuesday.
Economic
Reports
| Economic Data: |
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
Consensus |
|
Jul 29 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
85.0 |
|
Jul 30 |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
|
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
400K |
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
1.0% |
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
1.7% |
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
1.4% |
|
Jul 31 |
10:00 |
Help-Wanted Index |
37 |
|
Jul 31 |
10:00 |
Chicago PMI |
53.7 |
|
Aug 01 |
00:00 |
Auto Sales |
5.5M |
|
Aug 01 |
00:00 |
Truck Sales |
7.6M |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
0.3% |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
0.4% |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
5K |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
6.3% |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
33.8 |
|
Aug 01 |
09:45 |
Mich Sentiment-Rev. |
90.7 |
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
51.5 |
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
0.4% |
|
| Market Reaction |
We are expecting a rather strong consumer confidence
report. |
|
Earnings
Reports
|
Before
The Open |
|
|
|
Affiliated Computer |
ACS |
0.59 |
|
Air Tran Holdings |
AAI |
0.19 |
|
Alcatel |
ALA |
-0.19 |
|
Allied Capital |
ALD |
0.52 |
|
Amerada Hess |
AHC |
1.23 |
|
Andrew Corp |
ANDW |
0.01 |
|
Automatic Data |
ADP |
0.38 |
|
Ballard Power |
BLDP |
-0.25 |
|
Biovail |
BVF |
0.46 |
|
BP |
BP |
0.80 |
|
Bunge Ltd |
BG |
0.71 |
|
CenterPoint |
CNP |
0.12 |
|
Cincinnati Fincl |
CINF |
0.44 |
|
Clear Channel |
CCU |
0.37 |
|
Coach |
COH |
0.30 |
|
Concord EFS |
CE |
0.18 |
|
Cooper Cameron |
CAM |
0.37 |
|
Coventry Health Care |
CVH |
0.87 |
|
DuPont |
DD |
0.57 |
|
Engelhard |
EC |
0.45 |
|
Equity Office |
EOP |
0.69 |
|
FEI Company |
FEIC |
0.08 |
|
Fresh Del Monte |
FDP |
1.27 |
|
GATX |
GMT |
0.28 |
|
Group 1 Software |
GSOF |
0.10 |
|
Impath |
IMPH |
0.23 |
|
Integrated Circuit |
ICST |
0.22 |
|
Jones Apparel |
JNY |
0.56 |
|
King Pharms |
KG |
0.37 |
|
K-Swiss |
KSWS |
0.65 |
|
Lin TV |
TVL |
0.16 |
|
Louisiana-Pacific |
LPX |
0.17 |
|
McDonald's |
MCD |
0.37 |
|
McGraw-Hill |
MHP |
0.73 |
|
Milacron |
MZ |
-0.15 |
|
MIM Corp |
MIMS |
0.15 |
|
Nabors Ind |
NBR |
0.17 |
|
Neuberger Berman |
NEU |
0.39 |
|
Omnicom |
OMC |
1.02 |
|
Parker-Hannifin |
PH |
0.46 |
|
Perot Systems |
PER |
0.13 |
|
PPL Corp |
PPL |
0.71 |
|
Qwest |
Q |
-0.08 |
|
R.J. Reynolds |
RJR |
0.84 |
|
Smurfit-Stone |
SSCC |
-0.05 |
|
Sonic Automotive |
SAH |
0.72 |
|
Southern Co |
SO |
0.45 |
|
Teva Pharm |
TEVA |
0.44 |
|
Time Warner Tcom |
TWTC |
-0.30 |
|
Transkaryotic |
TKTX |
-0.50 |
|
Transocean Sedco |
RIG |
-0.06 |
|
Tyco |
TYC |
0.34 |
|
Valero Energy |
VLO |
1.07 |
|
Veeco Instruments |
VECO |
0.03 |
|
Verizon |
VZ |
0.68 |
|
During
the Market |
|
|
|
Stericycle |
SRCL |
0.33 |
|
After
the Close |
|
|
|
Actuate |
ACTU |
0.02 |
|
answerthink |
ANSR |
-0.02 |
|
Asyst |
ASYT |
-0.45 |
|
Axcelis Tech |
ACLS |
-0.10 |
|
Bisys Group |
BSG |
0.28 |
|
Cabot Oil & Gas |
COG |
0.52 |
|
Centillium |
CTLM |
-0.04 |
|
Charles River |
CRL |
0.41 |
|
Cree |
CREE |
0.16 |
|
CSG Systems |
CSGS |
0.22 |
|
Fluor |
FLR |
0.55 |
|
FMC Corp |
FMC |
0.59 |
|
Genesis Microchip
|
GNSS |
0.12 |
|
Guitar Center |
GTRC |
0.19 |
|
InterMune |
ITMN |
-0.93 |
|
JNI Corp |
JNIC |
-0.16 |
|
Kenneth Cole |
KCP |
0.28 |
|
Looksmart |
LOOK |
0.00 |
|
Metrologic Inst |
MTLG |
0.33 |
|
MicroStrategy |
MSTR |
0.21 |
|
Midway Games |
MWY |
-0.27 |
|
NDCHealth |
NDC |
0.33 |
|
OM Group |
OMG |
0.14 |
|
OPNET |
OPNT |
0.05 |
|
Papa John's |
PZZA |
0.54 |
|
PC-TEL |
PCTI |
-0.09 |
|
Pericom Semi |
PSEM |
-0.02 |
|
Pinnacle Systems |
PCLE |
0.10 |
|
Placer Dome |
PDG |
0.07 |
|
Protein Design |
PDLI |
-0.06 |
|
Renal Care |
RCI |
0.52 |
|
Solutia |
SOI |
-0.10 |
|
TEKELEC |
TKLC |
0.05 |
|
Trimble Navigation |
TRMB |
0.33 |
|
TTM Tech |
TTMI |
0.00 |
|
United Surgical |
USPI |
0.27 |
|
Unocal |
UCL |
0.69 |
|
USF Corp |
USFC |
0.30 |
|
Vignette |
VIGN |
-0.01 |
|
We are
not expecting any reaction to
these news releases from the
Market as a whole. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
Market Moving Events
| 1. |
NONE |
| Market Reaction: |
NONE |
| |
The Last Trading Session
The Markets floundered for most
of the day on Monday. There were no compelling catalysts one way
or the other, and Traders seemed content to sit tight after a summer
weekend. The Markets closed neutral and sentiment was neutral.
Lesson from the session:
If there are no
news events to drive trading on Mondays during summertime, the session
may be as slow as Friday's during summertime are.
Performance
Day Trades:
We made
-1.4
points day trading on
Monday.
We are considering making some
changes to the way we make day trading calls. Please watch for
changes that we may make this coming week..
|
Stock |
Long/Short |
Buy/Cover Price |
Sell/Short Price |
Profit (loss) |
|
IMCL |
Short |
40.2 |
40 |
(0.2) |
|
IMCL |
Short |
40.2 |
40 |
(0.2) |
|
IMCL |
Short |
40.2 |
40 |
(0.2) |
|
QLGC |
Long |
46 |
45.8 |
(0.2) |
|
QLGC |
Long |
46 |
45.8 |
(0.2) |
|
QLGC |
Long |
46 |
45.8 |
(0.2) |
|
EXPE |
Long |
80 |
79.8 |
(0.2) |
|
Total |
|
|
|
1.4 |
View Our Day Trade
Performance page for past performance
statistics.
Swing
Trades (The
focus 4 list)
We have gains in this strategy of
+4.88
We are watching
closely. Neutral Trading channels may appear with resistance near
this level. Additional upside is likely though before an official
test of resistance.
| STOCK |
Long
Entry Target |
Approx. Entry |
Current Price |
Net Gain: |
Target Price: |
Entry Date |
Exit Date |
Stop Limit: |
Status |
Re-entry strategy if stopped: |
| QCOM |
36.4 |
36.4 |
36.15 |
-.25 |
42 |
7/22/03 |
7/22/03 |
36.15 |
stopped |
|
| QCOM |
36.4 |
36.4 |
36.15 |
-.25 |
42 |
7/22/03 |
7/22/03 |
36.15 |
stopped |
|
| QCOM |
36.4 |
36.4 |
38.71 |
2.31 |
42 |
7/24/03 |
|
36.15 |
OPEN |
|
| FNM |
63.2 |
63.2 |
64.36 |
1.16 |
72 |
7/22/03 |
|
62.95 |
OPEN |
|
| GS |
85.2 |
85.3 |
86.5 |
1.2 |
92 |
7/22/03 |
|
84.95 |
OPEN |
|
| IBM |
81.5 |
81.7 |
82.41 |
.71 |
90 |
7/22/03 |
|
81.25 |
OPEN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
|
|
|
4.88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Click on the link below to review our
Swing Trading results.
Swing
Trades Performance page
Long
Term Holds:
When we
initiate a long term portfolio like this we will find ourselves very
happy when the Market is moving higher, but rather upset when it moves
lower. The purpose of this strategy though is to disregard the
fluctuations in the Market in favor of longer term gains. Please
do not get excited by the increases in this portfolio, and do not let
the declines worry you. We have stops in place to prevent losses
in case we are wrong on our timing.
IMCL: We
expect IMCL to file its 10-K shortly and we do not expect it to be
TYC:
this is a long term hold.
AMAT: We
have missed our re-entry on AMAT.
CSCO:
this is a long term hold.
GE:
this is a long term hold.
AMGN: this is a long term hold.
DELL:
this is a long term hold.
MSFT: We
are considering removing MSFT from this portfolio.
INTC:
this is a long term hold.
| STOCK |
Long or Short |
Entry Target |
Approx. Entry |
Current Price |
Net Gain: |
Target Price: |
Stop Limit: |
Status |
Re-entry strategy: |
| TYC |
Stops |
# stops: |
6 |
|
-1.5 |
|
|
|
|
| TYC |
Long |
12 |
12 |
19.8 |
7.8 |
long term |
1.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
IMCL |
Long |
#stops |
3 |
|
-.75 |
|
9.75 |
|
|
|
IMCL |
Long |
10 |
10 |
43 |
33 |
long term |
9.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
AMAT |
stops |
# stops: |
9 |
|
-2.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
AMAT |
Long |
11.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GE |
Stops |
# stops: |
14 |
|
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
GE |
Long |
23 |
23 |
28.38 |
5.38 |
long term |
22.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
AMGN |
Stops |
# stops: |
10 |
|
-2.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
AMGN |
Long |
36 |
36 |
69.83 |
33.83 |
long term |
35.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
DELL |
Stops |
# stops: |
6 |
|
-1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
DELL |
Long |
23 |
23 |
32.79 |
9.79 |
long term |
22.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
MSFT |
Stops |
# stops: |
15 |
|
-3.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
MSFT |
Long |
23.4 |
23.5 |
26.62 |
3.12 |
long term |
24 |
OPEN |
|
|
INTC |
Stops |
# stops: |
15 |
|
-3.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
INTC |
Long |
16 |
16 |
24.8 |
8.8 |
long term |
15.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
CSCO |
Stops |
#stops |
2 |
|
-0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
CSCO |
Long |
12.5 |
12.5 |
19.09 |
6.59 |
long term |
13.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Totals: |
|
|
|
|
87.31 |
|
|
|
|
Click on the link below to review our Special Situation trading
results.
Special Situation Performance page
The Dividend
Portfolio
This portfolio of stocks is
designed to be an alternative to the bond funds that you may have in
place at this time. It is designed to provide diversified long
term income and growth in high dividend paying stocks. Please read
more about this strategy before you decide to invest by clicking here:
More Information
All Trades have triggered.
|
Stock |
Long |
Entry Target |
Approx Entry |
Current Price |
Net
gain |
Target Price |
Stop Limit |
Status |
Re-entry Strategy |
| HON |
Long |
24 |
24.05 |
23.75 |
-.25 |
Long Term |
23.75 |
stopped |
|
| HON |
Long |
24 |
24 |
28.61 |
4.61 |
Long Term |
23.75 |
OPEN |
24 |
| BMY |
Long |
26 |
26 |
25.5 |
.5 |
Long Term |
25.75 |
stopped |
|
| BMY |
Long |
24 |
24 |
26.09 |
2.09 |
Long Term |
23.75 |
OPEN |
24 |
| JPM |
Long |
31 |
31 |
30.75 |
.25 |
Long Term |
30.75 |
stopped |
|
| JPM |
Long |
31 |
31 |
35.46 |
4.46 |
Long Term |
30.75 |
OPEN |
31 |
| DOW |
Long |
31 |
31.05 |
30.75 |
.3 |
Long Term |
30.75 |
stopped |
|
| DOW |
Long |
31 |
31 |
30.75 |
1 |
Long Term |
30.75 |
stopped |
|
| DOW |
Long |
31 |
31 |
35.14 |
4.14 |
Long Term |
30.75 |
OPEN |
31 |
| SLE |
Long |
17.2 |
17.2 |
19.27 |
2.07 |
Long Term |
16.95 |
OPEN |
17.2 |
| SBC |
Long |
25 |
25 |
24.75 |
.25 |
Long Term |
24.75 |
OPEN |
|
| SBC |
Long |
23.4 |
23.4 |
23.87 |
.47 |
Long Term |
23.15 |
OPEN |
23.4 |
| GM |
Long |
37 |
37 |
36.75 |
.5 |
Long Term |
36.75 |
stopped |
|
| GM |
Long |
37 |
37 |
37.15 |
.15 |
Long Term |
36.75 |
OPEN |
37 |
| Net Gain |
|
|
|
|
14.94 |
|
|
|
|
Good Trading,
BM. |